VIP baccarat generated MOP15.9 billion during the April-to-June period, down 18.8% from the first quarter and 2.6% from the same period last year. Its share of Macau’s total casino gaming revenue fell from 29.7% in the first quarter to 26.1% in the second.

The quarterly fall was significantly steeper than the decline recorded by the broader market.

Total gross gaming revenue from games of fortune reached approximately MOP61.03 billion in the second quarter. That was almost unchanged year-on-year, but around 7.4% below the first quarter. Mass-market baccarat generated MOP35.17 billion, falling 3.8% quarter-on-quarter and 1.2% year-on-year.

The figures do not necessarily indicate that Macau’s VIP recovery has ended. Analysts had already warned that lower-than-normal VIP hold and reduced activity during the FIFA World Cup could affect the second-quarter comparison. The first quarter had also been unusually strong: VIP baccarat revenue rose 35.4% year-on-year to MOP19.56 billion during the first three months of 2026.

For the first half of the year, VIP baccarat revenue was still 15.2% higher than during the same period of 2025.

But the latest quarter reinforces a larger structural change.

Mass-market baccarat accounted for 57.6% of Macau’s casino gaming revenue during the second quarter. VIP baccarat represented just over one quarter.

Before the pandemic and the collapse of the traditional junket model, the relationship was very different. VIP baccarat represented 46.2% of Macau’s casino revenue in 2019. By the second quarter of 2026, its share had fallen to 26.1%.

This does not mean VIP players are no longer important. Premium customers continue to influence room rates, luxury retail, private gaming areas and the profitability of integrated resorts.

However, the operators are now working within a market where growth is increasingly supported by:

The traditional reliance on junket-driven high rollers is no longer the central engine of Macau’s casino economy.

The second-quarter figures also show that growth is not limited to baccarat.

Slot-machine revenue reached MOP4.11 billion, increasing 17% year-on-year. Live multi-game electronic products generated approximately MOP1.30 billion, up 3.1%.

These categories remain much smaller than baccarat, but their performance supports the broader diversification of casino floors. They allow operators to serve different customer profiles and generate revenue from players who do not fit the traditional VIP or table-focused model.

The 18.8% quarterly decline should be interpreted carefully. VIP results can fluctuate considerably because of hold rates, customer concentration and the timing of major events.

It would therefore be premature to describe the second quarter as a collapse.

The more important signal is the revenue mix.

Macau’s market can remain stable even while VIP baccarat weakens because mass gaming now carries a much larger proportion of the industry. That makes the market less dependent on a relatively small number of high-value players, but it also changes how concessionaires must compete.

The next earnings reports from Macau’s operators should provide a clearer view of whether the second-quarter VIP decline was primarily a temporary hold issue or evidence that premium demand is becoming less consistent.

Either way, the long-term direction is already visible: Macau’s recovery is increasingly being built around the mass market, while VIP gaming plays a smaller and more volatile supporting role.

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Web: eastasiareports.com · Email: [email protected] · LinkedIn: East Asia Reports · Author: Adrià Mas