Macao’s new five-year plan promises an economy in which non-gaming industries generate approximately 60% of gross domestic product by 2030. On the surface, it sounds like a decisive attempt to move the world’s largest casino market beyond gambling.

But Macao has already crossed that line.

Non-gaming industries accounted for 61.7% of the city’s total gross value added in 2023. By 2024, however, their share had fallen to 56.7%. The target was not lost because Macao suddenly abandoned diversification. It fell primarily because gaming recovered faster and reclaimed a larger share of the economy.

That reversal reveals the central problem with the 60% target: it measures the relative size of gaming and non-gaming activity, not Macao’s actual independence from casinos.

The government’s previous diversification plan sought to raise non-gaming industries to approximately 60% of GDP by 2028. The new 2026–2030 plan retains essentially the same target but extends the deadline by two years.

From the 2024 baseline, Macao needs to gain only 3.3 percentage points by 2030. Yet the government expects approximately MOP130 billion—around US$16.1 billion—in budgeted investment across major diversification projects during the five-year period.

Those projects include an international university town linking Macao and Hengqin, an aviation hub, a science and technology industrial park, and an integrated tourism and cultural zone. These are substantial developments, but their success cannot be measured adequately by whether one headline ratio moves from 56.7% to 60%.

The ratio can improve when non-gaming industries grow. It can also improve when casino activity contracts. Conversely, it can deteriorate even while non-gaming businesses expand if gaming grows more quickly.

Macao demonstrated both possibilities within two years.

The government is also establishing a MOP20 billion, or approximately US$2.5 billion, guidance fund. Its preliminary structure combines MOP11 billion—around US$1.36 billion—from accumulated fiscal-reserve earnings with approximately MOP9 billion, or US$1.11 billion, in private capital.

The fund is intended to support emerging industries, technological commercialisation, startups and the transformation of existing businesses. Its creation adds a potentially important source of patient capital to an economy historically dominated by casino investment.

But much of that public financial capacity ultimately originates from gaming taxation. At the same time, the six casino concessionaires are contractually committed to approximately MOP118.8 billion, or US$14.7 billion, in non-gaming investment through 2032.

The arrangement creates a distinct Macao paradox: the casino industry is supplying much of the capital being used to reduce the economy’s dependence on casinos.

Stronger gaming performance can even accelerate this process. When annual gross gaming revenue surpassed MOP180 billion—approximately US$22.3 billion—in 2023, it triggered a mandatory 20% increase in concessionaires’ non-gaming investment commitments.

Gaming growth therefore produces more diversification capital while simultaneously making the 60% target harder to maintain.

There is another problem hidden inside the definition.

Hotels, restaurants, retail, entertainment, conventions and transport are classified as non-gaming activities. Yet many of them still depend on visitors, properties, marketing budgets and events generated by integrated casino resorts.

A concert held inside a concessionaire’s resort is non-gaming revenue. So is a hotel stay or luxury purchase made by a casino visitor. These activities broaden Macao’s tourism product, but they do not necessarily protect the economy from a future contraction in gaming-led travel.

The government’s own consultation process acknowledged that the wider benefits produced by concessionaires for local businesses and employment remain difficult to quantify precisely.

That is why reaching 60% once is not the real test. Macao must demonstrate that its emerging industries can generate investment, customers and skilled employment beyond the gravitational pull of the casino resorts.

By 2030, Macao may again be able to say that 60% of its economy is non-gaming. The more revealing question is how much of that 60% could survive if the casino floors were empty.

We track how money, players and regulation move across East Asia's gaming markets — including the parts that don't show up in the official figures. If that's your world, reply. The best context usually comes from comparing notes.

—

East Asia Reports
Web: eastasiareports.com · Email: [email protected]
Author — Adrià Mas Rodríguez