Japan legalised space for three integrated resorts. So far, it has approved one.

MGM Osaka is under construction and scheduled to open in 2030. The other two licences remain available — and Japan’s next application window will run from 6 May to 5 November 2027.

Hokkaido is now trying to establish whether one of them could be viable.

Between July and August, the Hokkaido government plans to send an integrated-resort questionnaire to all 179 municipalities in the prefecture, selected casino operators and financial institutions.

The contents have not been made public. The list of recipients, however, reveals what Hokkaido needs to know.

A viable IR requires three things before a prefecture can submit an application: a willing host municipality, an experienced operating partner and enough financing to support a multibillion-dollar development. Hokkaido is testing all three at once.

That does not mean it has decided to bid. The prefectural government’s preliminary policy framework defines the possible direction of a “Hokkaido-style IR”, but stops short of committing to one.

Tomakomai positioned itself as a potential host during Japan’s first licensing round, attracting attention from international operators. Hokkaido ultimately decided not to participate in November 2019.

The local picture remains mixed.

In a previous survey, 79 municipalities supported the idea of an IR somewhere in Hokkaido, while 98 expressed no interest. Tomakomai and Hakodate initially showed interest in hosting it, but Hakodate later said it was not in a position to pursue a bid.

That leaves Tomakomai as the only municipality still openly associated with a potential Hokkaido casino project.

Hokkaido’s expert panel is meanwhile refining the prefecture’s basic IR position and discussing gambling-addiction safeguards. Draft documents are expected to reach the prefectural assembly in September, with final versions scheduled for October.

By then, Hokkaido should have a clearer answer from the market.

The wider regulatory machinery is already advancing.

In July, Konami Gaming became the first casino-equipment manufacturer to submit licence applications to the Japan Casino Regulatory Commission across all applicable manufacturer categories. Japan requires manufacturers and other casino stakeholders — not only operators — to pass its licensing process.

Konami’s application is primarily preparation for the emerging Japanese market led by MGM Osaka. But it also shows that the supplier and compliance infrastructure needed for future resorts is beginning to form before the second location round.

The national framework is no longer theoretical. Operators, manufacturers, banks and regulators are starting to make decisions inside it.

For international casino groups, Hokkaido represents access to one of the two remaining licences in a tightly restricted market. For banks, suppliers and advisers, it could produce a new development pipeline extending from financing and construction to compliance, payments, surveillance and responsible-gambling systems.

But the opportunity remains conditional.

Hokkaido still needs a committed host, an operator willing to return after the failed first round and a financing structure capable of supporting a project on the scale Japan expects. It must also show that economic benefits can outweigh environmental concerns and opposition to casino gambling.

The questionnaire is therefore not the beginning of a tender. It is a test of whether a tender would attract anyone credible.

Japan has two casino licences left. The question Hokkaido is asking is not yet whether it wants one — but whether enough of the market still wants Hokkaido.

We track how money, players and regulation move across East Asia's gaming markets — including the parts that don't show up in the official figures. If that's your world, reply. The best context usually comes from comparing notes.

East Asia Reports
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Author — Adrià Mas Rodríguez