Hong Kong spent much of 2025 constructing a legal market for basketball betting. It consulted the public, amended its legislation and prepared to place the activity under the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Then, before the first legal wager could be accepted, the government stopped the launch.

The result is an unusual regulatory position: Hong Kong now possesses the legal framework for regulated 籃球博彩 — basketball betting — but no operator has been licensed to offer it.

The original argument for regulation was the size of the illegal market.

According to an estimate supplied by the Hong Kong Jockey Club, illegal basketball betting turnover reached between HK$70 billion and HK$90 billion in 2024—approximately US$9 billion to US$11.5 billion.

Hong Kong already uses a controlled-outlet model for gambling. The HKJC operates authorised horse-racing betting, football betting and the Mark Six lottery, while most other commercial gambling remains prohibited.

The government proposed applying a similar model to basketball. Instead of trying to eliminate demand entirely, it would redirect part of the existing 外圍投注 — illegal or offshore betting — into a regulated channel.

The Betting Duty (Amendment) Bill 2025 created that framework. It empowered the Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs to issue a basketball-betting licence, impose operating conditions and charge tax at 50% of net stake receipts—the same rate used for football betting.

The government intended to license the HKJC and initially estimated annual tax revenue of approximately HK$1.5 billion to HK$2 billion, or US$192 million to US$256 million.

The Legislative Council passed the bill in September 2025. But passing the legislation did not automatically activate the market. The HKJC still required a separate operating licence.

That licence never arrived.

On 14 April 2026, Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak announced that it was no longer appropriate to proceed with basketball betting.

The reason given was not basketball itself. It was the rapid international growth of 預測市場 — prediction markets.

The government said the monthly trading volume associated with these platforms had risen from below US$100 million in early 2024 to US$13 billion by December 2025. It feared that introducing another legal betting product could attract public attention to speculative and illegal alternatives instead of drawing users away from them.

Chief Executive John Lee subsequently supported the decision, noting that prediction markets extended beyond conventional gambling into speculation and virtual assets. He said approximately 40% of their activity was connected to sporting events.

This reversed the logic behind the original reform.

In 2025, the government argued that legal basketball betting could reduce illegal activity by offering a controlled alternative. By April 2026, it was concerned that launching the product might increase interest in betting more broadly.

Basketball betting has therefore not been prohibited by a new reversal of the law.

The 2025 amendments remain important because they created the power to issue and regulate a licence. What has been suspended is the use of that power.

For customers, the distinction is simple: legal basketball betting is not currently available in Hong Kong. The HKJC cannot offer it unless the government issues the required licence.

For the industry, the situation is more unusual. The legal and taxation architecture already exists, and the intended operator is known. A future government decision could potentially activate the market without rebuilding the entire legislative framework.

There is, however, no published launch date or formal timetable for reconsideration.

The government says it will continue monitoring prediction markets, illegal gambling and the effectiveness of enforcement, education and addiction-support measures.

Its decision will ultimately depend on a difficult question: would a regulated basketball product reduce illegal betting, or simply enlarge the number of people interested in wagering?

Hong Kong has not answered that question permanently. It has delayed the answer.

The city now has something rarer than either a legal or prohibited market: a regulated basketball-betting system that exists in legislation but has never been allowed to operate.

East Asia Reports
Web: eastasiareports.com · Email: [email protected]
Author — Adrià Mas Rodríguez